Such is the sense of puzzlement and discomfort that it is the only subject of discussion in the fraternity. "Till the plane disappeared, there were discussions and debates on the crucial elections here less than a month from now. But all that has receded. The mystery of flight MH370 is the only subject being discussed in pilots' gatherings at airline offices and clubs around the country," said Jet Airways captain Sarvesh Gupta.
Both Jet Airways and Air India use Boeing B777-ER, identical to the Malaysia Airlines mystery plane, in overseas operations. While the plane has an excellent safety record, having been involved in only two accidents since its induction nearly 12 years ago, the latest mystery has rattled pilots who have their own theories but are anxious to find out if they are correct.
"It is an eerie feeling that will persist till the wreckage is found. It will take a couple of years or even more before investigation into the incident is completed and all the questions are answered. But the condition of the wreckage and its location will at least give preliminary clues on which basic conclusions can be drawn," Gupta told TOI from Jordan.
Captain Jaideep Banerjee concurred. "I have a theory like all pilots do about what happened on Saturday night. We are waiting for the wreckage to surface because it will either prove us right or wrong. If it is right, it means we are on the job. If not, it is a signal that we need to pull up our socks or look at aspects of the flight system that were unknown to behave in that manner before," he said.
Banerjee is convinced the plane disintegrated mid-air at 30,000 ft following a structural failure, giving the pilots no time to send a distress alert. "Had the pilot had time, even if he was beyond radio coverage, all he needed to do was just change the transponder code to 7700. That is the standard alert code," he said.
If a plane disintegrates at that altitude, it will be blown to smithereens and debris will scatter over 80-sq km radius. Even when the Air France flight 447 disappeared in June 2009, it took four days to locate the debris. But what either Banerjee or Gupta cannot make sense is why the Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT), a device that is on board the aircraft and switches on automatically to transmit signals to dedicated search and rescue satellites on impact with land or contact with water, is not functioning.
"B-777 has not one but four independent ELTs of two types. It seems fantastic that they would all have become inoperative. Unless, the plane hasn't crashed at all. It is this aspect that is most perplexing," said Banerjee.
In 2009, Banerjee had corrected surmised that a thunderstorm had iced the flight's instrumentation, triggering the crash. The crash report tabled after two-and-a-half years vindicated his theory.
This time, there are several other theories doing the rounds like the airplane going into a tailspin, diving headlong into water and getting stuck in the sea floor. The captains rule out the possibility. "The cross section of the aircraft's nose is 24 ft. If the plane dives headlong, it will disintegrate before hitting water," said Banerjee.
But what if there were experts on board who switched off the aircraft transponder, made the plane invisible to radars and then landed it somewhere. That the cell phones of 18 passengers are ringing when dialed has fueled such a theory.
"It is possible to make a plane disappear from radar. But in this case it is improbable because you need a large airstrip to land the plane. And how could you keep a B777 hidden. If the phones are really ringing, then the crash site is on land and not underwater where cell signals don't reach," said Gupta.
Gupta has been clued to all the theories including the plane doing a near U-turn after the transponder stopped emitting signals and travelling hundreds of kilometers towards the Malacca Strait."It is like the movie Airport 77 where a 747 was hijacked by art thieves and crashed into the ocean after encountering dense fog. I don't know if there were hijackers on board who took control of the plane but it is difficult to understand how a plane that big wasn't noticed by anyone when it veered off course for so long. Let's hope the wreckage is found to the east of the Malaysian peninsula early on Wednesday," he remarked.
Whatever be the ultimate answer to the case, when the crash report of the Malaysia Airline incident is finally out, the pilots believe it will lead to modification of aviation rules worldwide and have deep repercussion on flight safety norms and equipment. "None of us would want to be in the cockpit of that Malaysia Airlines cockpit. There were multiple systems that either failed or were sabotaged. The industry has to ensure that it does not recur," Banerjee added.
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