TNN Sep 3, 2013, 03.43AM IST
(Intelligence reports from…)
NEW DELHI: With the 2014 poll approaching, there is a spike in communal polarization in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in what can impact the electoral outcome in the two states which together make up for 120 Lok Sabha seats.
Sources in the government said intelligence reports from the field suggested heightened communal sentiment in the two states. Although they have not reached the intensity which dominated Uttar Pradesh politics through the 1990s, the rise is discernible, intelligence sources said.
Although Intelligence Bureau is not supposed to be in the business of gathering political intelligence, its field reports are rich in political content and are factored in by successive regimes.
Sources said the rising religious feeling: shorthand for Hindu-Muslim divide, coincides with Gujarat CM Narendra Modi's ascendancy in the BJP, and keen tussle among "secular" parties in UP and Bihar to consolidate their hold over the Muslim vote.
Modi has himself refrained from using polarizing rhetoric, especially after a couple of his imageries provoked controversy. However, BJP's choice of his trusted aide Amit Shah as the party's new pointperson for UP and VHP's failed effort to whip up support for its campaign for Ram temple have been seen as moves for Hindu consolidation.
The ruling Samajwadi Party, which got the lion's share of support of Muslims, seems to be determined not to let its grip slip over the politically crucial constituency. Its support for allegedly innocent youth in jail on "trumped up" terror charges, the highly publicized "punishment" meted out to IAS officer Durga Sakthi Nagpal for allegedly demolishing the wall of a mosque; even its high-pitch response to VHP's mobilization are all seen as contributing to sharpening the fault lines.
Though the 17-month tenure of Akhilesh Yadav has been marked by many incidents of communal tension, the degree to which they may have contributed to the trend is difficult to determine.
Bihar, which remained insulated from the pattern in UP even during the divisive 1990s, has also seen widening of the divide, according to intelligence reports, especially in the wake of chief minister Nitish Kumar's split with BJP. There have been at least three instances of communal tension and, more importantly, return of a polarizing rhetoric which had remained absent from the political discourse for the last decade or so.
The drift towards communal polarization in UP is raising concerns in Congress which is banking on a "normal" election to stand a chance in the state where it harvested a surprise tally of 20 Lok Sabha seats in the 2009 elections.
Agreeing that IB's assessment was on the mark and tallied with the party's feedback, Congress sources said the emerging scenario was fraught with the prospect of polarization that may push the majority and minority groups towards political groups with hardline views.
"While SP is trying to cash in on the apprehension about BJP's revival under BJP, the saffron outfit will feed on the perception of "appeasement" under the Samajwadi regime.
If the mood turns into a pattern in the months to go for elections, Congress and BSP may have reasons to be worried as moderate outfits in the state battling amid SP and BJP. It would be a serious task for Congress that has to defend a rich tally of 20 seats to strengthen its claim on power at the Centre.
Having delivered "normal elections" since 1999, Uttar Pradesh has appeared to turn the clock back after the return of Samajwadi Party to power in Lucknow in 2012.
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